Analyze .
Ignore consensus opinions and focus entirely on variant perception. Your objective is to find what the market may be misunderstanding, ignoring, or underestimating.
Provide:
1) Business Summary
- what does the company do?
- how does it make money?
- why does it matter?
> Bull Case
What could go right?
What are investors missing?
What hidden growth drivers exist?
What future catalysts could emerge?
What optionality is not reflected in the stock price?
> Bear Case
What could go wrong?
What risks are underappreciated?
What assumptions must be true for the thesis to fail?
> Variant Perception
What does Wall Street currently believe?
What alternative outcome could occur?
Why is consensus potentially wrong?
> Catalysts
Earnings
Product launches
Partnerships
Regulatory developments
Industry shifts
Capital allocation decisions
> Management
Insider ownership
Insider buying/selling
Capital allocation quality
Track record
> Competitive Position
Moat
Market share
Industry positioning
Competitive advantages
> Probability-Weighted Outcomes
Bear Case (% probability)
Base Case (% probability)
Bull Case (% probability)
If Wall Street is wrong and the bull case plays out, what would need to happen for this stock to double, triple, or become a long-term market leader?
